Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-02 38.087435 41.502578 45.261022 49.738275 54.972399 60.956219 68.401324
2025-03-09 33.087155 37.416379 42.486929 48.970644 57.205350 67.559829 81.996242
2025-03-16 29.406739 33.981398 39.541618 46.970797 56.928952 70.298467 90.573422
2025-03-23 28.070679 33.114720 39.469733 48.342605 60.921528 79.059727 109.387546
2025-03-30 26.329865 31.514037 38.214295 47.874022 62.159632 83.950681 123.493088
2025-04-06 24.818058 30.055797 36.968325 47.205235 62.904725 88.083880 137.432773
2025-04-13 23.157530 28.268560 35.110610 45.433156 61.675826 88.694178 144.849281
2025-04-20 22.778813 28.169136 35.556109 47.052779 65.956843 99.503053 177.345524
2025-04-27 22.317520 27.911218 35.735980 48.257697 69.698699 110.185463 215.492903
2025-05-04 21.885334 27.656248 35.884543 49.403809 73.483863 121.911401 264.717817
2025-05-11 21.136583 26.900008 35.226248 49.160688 74.689223 128.483459 303.858606
2025-05-18 20.432286 26.168088 34.552315 48.819675 75.645614 134.737159 348.076726
2025-05-25 19.554902 25.187351 33.508724 47.887387 75.585440 139.252350 394.570916
2025-06-01 18.786700 24.334608 32.618436 47.154017 75.855937 144.852066 456.550325
2025-06-08 17.830043 23.155781 31.147149 45.270893 73.488700 142.809188 475.792915
2025-06-15 17.624884 23.093887 31.439932 46.563136 78.053717 161.781548 677.194046
2025-06-22 17.081827 22.490174 30.819729 46.121879 78.735402 169.566919 830.704693
2025-06-29 16.540792 21.865789 30.130549 45.491822 78.894268 175.829175 1009.058754
2025-07-06 15.835186 20.961131 28.937477 43.820822 76.404358 172.313039 1049.420595
2025-07-13 15.770874 21.048845 29.393397 45.348150 81.811171 199.604170 1953.331977
2025-07-20 15.633751 21.013965 29.637817 46.483192 86.502416 227.829318 4421.708335
2025-07-27 15.490380 20.961083 29.845404 47.561888 91.297375 260.931694 20924.307784
2025-08-03 15.143482 20.566947 29.438179 47.333145 92.482240 277.676021 548674.169601